There is a new research report released by the analysts at mediaIDEAS (disclosure: I am a full working partner) that answers the ever-asked question, is print dead?
The answer of course is, no, we are neither dead nor dying, but the analysis also suggests a near moment in time when digital revenues will surpass print revenues for publishers. So, it isn’t about death, but rather about the realignment of our resources and expectations.
According to the report’s author, David Renard, “Over the next 10 years, the magazine industry will experience deep-rooted change from primarily a print-oriented business to one where digital products will represent the largest share of a smaller periodical industry. We expect digital to be the primary source of revenue for magazines past the 2016-2017 time frame.”
According to the report, about 10 percent of the total periodical industry in 2009 was based on advertising and circulation revenue directly or indirectly associated with all digital product lines. In 2014, *mediaIDEAS* forecasts that the digital portion of the U.S. periodical industry will be worth approximately $8.5 billion, or about 28 percent of the total market. By 2020 it will have increased to approximately $20 billion, or about 58 percent of the total market.
Because of several factors including the aggressive adoption of new delivery mediums, such as Apple’s iPad and next generation color e-paper e-readers, the report finds that *digital will go from representing 10 percent in 2009 to representing 58 percent of the magazine industry in 2020*, and, conversely, print will go from representing more than 75% of the market's value in 2008, to less than one third by 2020.
So, in this projected scheme of things to come print survives and so does a regenerated and revived publishing industry. I suppose you can debate the exact percentages, or the precise dates of the report but I think the eventual conclusion is inevitable.
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